Kazakhstan has become a key player in the European energy market.

In 2024-2025, the European Union launched an unprecedented process of diversifying energy flows. According to Eurostat data, Kazakhstan not only adapted to this large-scale shift but also emerged as a new, important, strategic partner, reports Roman Bilousov.

In 2024, the EU continued its downward trend in energy imports. Import value fell by 16.2%, while volume fell by 7.1%. The share of energy in the EU's total imports fell from 17.8% in 2023 to 15.4%.

The most notable changes occurred in the gas market: imports of natural gas in its gaseous state have fallen by 43% since 2021, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies have increased by 72%. This reflects the EU's commitment to logistical flexibility and the search for alternatives to pipeline gas, according to the Eurostat report "EU Energy Imports – Recent Developments." The oil sector has also seen dramatic changes.

Kazakhstan is among the top three oil suppliers.

Under these conditions, Kazakhstan has confidently established itself among the top three largest exporters of crude oil to the EU.

The United States (16.1%) and Norway (13.5%) were the leading suppliers in 2024. Kazakhstan ranked third with an 11.5% share of total EU oil imports.

Libya and Kazakhstan showed the greatest growth among suppliers, making them key players in the market.

Italy is the main European buyer of Kazakh oil. However, Kazakhstan's primary concern remains its high dependence on transit through Russia via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which handles over 90% of its exports. Developing alternative routes, including through the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Turkey, is a strategic priority for mitigating geopolitical risks.

Strategic challenges and potential of coal

Kazakhstan's share of the coal market has also seen a significant increase.

 В первом квартале 2025 года крупнейшим поставщиком угля в ЕС была Австралия (33,4%). За ней следовали США (31,3%) и Колумбия (16,0%).

Kazakhstan ranks eighth in the world in coal production. In 2024, the country produced over 108.461 million tons of coal, of which approximately 30 million tons were exported. The main export destinations have traditionally included Russia, China, and the CIS countries.

Now, given the EC's new clarifications, Kazakhstan has the opportunity to significantly increase its exports to Europe. Experts predict that Kazakh coal supplies to the EU could reach 8-10 million tons by 2025, significantly exceeding current levels.

According to the Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the situation with coal is not bad.

 В 2022 году объем экспорта казахстанского угля в ЕС составил 4,4 млн тонн на сумму $419,2 млн (доля – 45% от общего экспорта угля). В 2023 году – 6,1 млн тонн на $382 млн (54,3%). В 2024 году – 5,2 млн тонн на $312,5 млн (51,8%). В январе-мае 2025 года экспорт составил 1,6 млн тонн на $82,9 млн, или 38,5% от общего объема экспорта угля.

While the country is not yet a key player in the gas sector, it does possess enormous reserves, which opens up new prospects in the long term.

As a result, Kazakhstan has successfully filled the vacuum that has emerged in the European market. Its role as a reliable and major oil supplier is strengthening.

Speaking at the April Central Asia-European Union summit in Samarkand, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev noted that Kazakhstan, in addition to being a reliable supplier of hydrocarbons to Europe, is prepared to increase exports to the EU across 175 commodity items by more than $2 billion.